Super El Niño 2026 Update: 60% Odds It’s the Strongest Since 1950. Don’t Drain Your Pool.

This morning, NOAA put the odds at about 60% that this El Nino becomes the strongest one measured since 1950. And what that means for you depends entirely on which kind of pool owner you are. Whether your pool is on flat ground, sits on a hillside, or is currently under construction, each situation requires a completely different answer. This chart tracks the numbers from NOAA's November update. The key ocean temperature reading actually went up to 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal, but the odds of a historic event came down from last month, settling at about 60%. A strong El Nino loads the dice, but it does not promise rain. The winter of 1997 to 1998 was a very strong El Nino, and Los Angeles was completely soaked.

The winter of 2015 to 2016 was all very strong, and Southern California came in dry. Nobody can tell you exactly how many inches are coming. What NOAA is telling you is that the odds of a wet winter that they get are as high as they get. And you have to prepare for the probability now. NOAA also says that a strong to very strong El Nino is likely through January, February, and March, better than a 79% chance. This is the one the headlines are calling a super El Nino. The next update is December 10th. I'm Randy Beard. I've been building and investing in the El Nino. pools in California since 1979 and I've worked through every big El Nino since then. I can't tell you how much rain is coming. Nobody can. What I can tell you is which pools get hurt in a wet winter and it is not the ones you would guess. Find yourself in the next five minutes. So should you drain your pool before the rain? No. And here is how a pool pops out of the ground. Looking at this cross-section, you can see why draining your pool before a storm is a mistake. A typical concrete pool weighs about 47 tons empty but if groundwater rises just 2.7 feet above the floor, that hollow hole becomes completely weightless and pushes up. Keep the pool full. Turn off the automatic fill valve for the winter and have your service company confirm the $20 hydrostatic relief valve in the main drain actually opens. Two or three inches below the tile is all the room a normal storm needs. That internal water is the essential weight that stops your pool from popping out of the ground. And if the water turns green or cloudy after heavy rain, that is chemistry. Rain dilutes the chlorine and washes dirt in. You fix that with a test kit, not by draining. Now what if your pool is overflowing from rain? On flat ground, that is usually a wet lawn. On a hillside, it is a different story. If you are on a hillside, you have the opposite problem. A full pool is a massive bucket of water above your neighbor's roof. Just two inches of rain on an average pool and deck adds about 1,800 gallons in a single day. In September, a garden hose left running in a Hollywood Hills pool spilled about 7,000 gallons over the edge. No rain fell that day. But the saturated slope failed. A retaining wall collapsed and eight apartments had to be evacuated. Excess water has to leave through the deck drains drains. Clear them out. Test them with a hose and never let overflow spill over the downhill slope.

If the water level is too high after rain, lower it back to two or three inches below the tile, no more, and send that water to the street or a yard drain, never over the slope. Then, after every storm, walk the slope. Weep holes running clear. No new cracks in the deck. No soft ground below the pool. If that changes, lowering the pool is an engineer's decision, not a pool company's. If your pool is under construction, it's at its most vulnerable. An open hole or empty concrete boat catches rain and mud instantly. Ask your builder for their wet weather plan in writing before the next storm hits. Can you build a pool in a rainy winter? Yes, with a plan. Think about the stages. First, it is an open hole. Rain fills it. The dirt walls soften. It's not a good idea to build a pool in a rainy winter. It's a good idea to build a pool with a plan. Think about the stages. First, it is an open hole. Rain fills it. The dirt walls soften.

And the steel sits in mud. Then the shell is shot. And now you have a brand new concrete boat with nothing in it. No water, no deck, and often no plaster for weeks, because plaster does not go on in the rain. That is the lightest that pool will ever be at the wettest time of year. So ask, where does the water go? How is the excavation protected? Is there a relief valve or a sump under the shell? And is it open? Who checks the site after the rain? It's a good idea to check the site after each storm. A builder with a plan answers in two minutes. A builder without one changes the subject. Rain will stretch the schedule, so keep your money behind the work. California law caps home improvement down payments at $1,000 or 10% and restricts further payments to the value of work actually completed.

If the job sits in the rain, your money should sit too. And if you are planning a replaster or a remodel, remember that the job starts by draining the pool. In what case, the job starts by draining the pool. In what case, the job starts by draining the pool. It could be the wettest winter in years. It can be done safely, but it is a plan, not a habit. Ask how the groundwater will be relieved before the pool is emptied, how many days it will sit empty, and what happens if a storm arrives in the middle. Does homeowner's insurance cover pool damage from a storm? Often not the kind that matters most. Standard homeowner's insurance usually excludes earth movement and groundwater damage, meaning post-storm repairs often turn into dispute.

Flood insurance is a separate policy. It generally takes 30 days to take effect, and the federal flood policy does not insure swimming pools at all. That is why these losses turn into claims against the people who built the pool. And those claims are won or lost on what somebody can prove. Your protection is taking your phone right now and filming your pool deck and slope with the date. And after a storm, if something has moved, photograph it before anyone cleans up. Patches or re-grades. The crew that arrives to fix it is also the crew that erases what happened. In California, in a lawsuit between a homeowner and a pool contractor over a pool contract, the court awards attorney's fees to whoever wins. That cuts both ways. Good records decide which way.

Follow these five rules. Rule one, keep it full and do not lower it to be safe. Rule two, open the deck drains and close them. What's going to happen if you lose the auto fill so water leaves the right way? Rule three, if you are under construction, get that wet weather plan in writing. Rule four, pay only for the work completed. And rule five, film the property today and photograph any damage before anyone arrives to patch it up. The pools that get hurt in a wet winter are the empty ones, the unfinished ones and the ones nobody was watching. Keep it full. Open the drains. If it's being built, get the wet weather plan in writing. Keep it full. Open the drains. If it's being built, get the wet weather plan in writing. Keep it full. Open the drains. If it's being built, get the wet weather Keep your money behind the work and film everything now while it's dry.

Ask the questions in November.